This is the scariest and most profound essay I have ever read about the significance of Russia's war against Ukraine and the real threat the Russian belief system presents to human civilization. I am numb, nauseated, choking and shaking after reading.
The writer has knowledge of history, culture and religion and weaves all those threads together in flowing prose to warn the world of the nuclear meteor that is fast approaching our horizon and whose impact into our planet will extinct us all.
He is courageous to put himself out there publicly with this essay because of the scorn readers will heap upon him for sounding irrational and overly worried.
In fact, the writer -- who is a story teller, the best of all at communicating -- and his analaysis is clearly, brilliantly rational. Like many great insights, it requires a non-expert from outside "the field" to see and comprehend the greater picture.
I don't talk about my certainty that nuclear is coming among family and friends. To do so invites eye rolling and questions about my mental and emotional stability. My wife won't hear of it any longer.
I made some small efforts at prepping -- storing bottled water and dry foods, getting a short-wave radio -- until I read more and realized it was utterly futile. Maybe it is possible some people sheltered in well-made underground bunkers, caves or mine shafts with three months provisions could "survive" the initial detonations. But they will emerge into a world -- or a great part of the global landscape -- with no electricity, no water, no medicine, food systems destroyed and countless millions of people dying from starvation and disease.
What's more, all the knowledge in how to develop and make the hard and soft infrastructure of civilization, from simple motor engines to computer networks, will have died along with the dead people.
As the writer points out, the really scary part is that, in the mindset of Russian elites and likely a great portion of the Russian people and most importantly those tasked in the nuclear forces chain of command, they are engaged in a Holy War against the West. And, again as the writer makes clear, there is no negotiating with such an adversary because end-time warriors have no interest in abiding the norms of peace making. To them, The End is the telos of their sacred mission.
Those of us in the secular West -- of which I count myself as a irreligious secular thinker -- cannot see, or grasp, a mind and people swamped in religious fervor. We are Satan to them, and they are aliens to us.
Yes, Putin and the Russian elites have been methodical and deliberate, even cautious in the warnings they have given the West. Their nuclear doctrine is well-known, advertised, transparent and available for anyone to familiarize him- or herself with.
Honestly, I have no hope we will avoid catastrophe. Mankind are evil creatures. I have feared the world ending in nuclear Armageddon almost every day since I was a little boy more than 65 years ago and my nose was pressed against school hallway walls as I squat in duck-and-cover drills. The lucky ones will be those who are close to the point of detonation who will be atomized at the speed of light, never even aware of their own death and the deaths of millions, tens of million, hundreds of millions and, eventually, billions of people around the planet that will follow.
But despite my paralyzing fear – my “sickness unto death” – I thank Mr. Edward Scarlett-Watts for publishing this essay nonetheless. This will sound nonsensical coming from the sad atheist I am: God bless him and his family, God bless.
Thank you very much indeed for this comment, your kind words and support. They are truly appreciated for, as you say, people do scorn this kind of analysis, a reaction probably out of fear, the unwillingness of their minds to face the scale of the potential horror.
The only thing I would add is that while you are absolutely right that what follows a nuclear war will be a deep darkness, another myth that we live by is that it will be the end of everything. People thought the same thing about aerial bombardment before the Second World War. Yet humans have an incredible capacity to adapt, survive and endure. In fact, the true horror may not even be how many die but how many survive to face the aftermath.
I believe that preparation is not futile; rather, it is essential. From what I have read, the maximum danger from fallout is the first 14 days, after which we would be able to emerge. As for the loss of knowledge - a book has been written for that very purpose: https://amzn.eu/d/5NTNj71
It's also worth noting that a nuclear war would primarily be between the nations of the global north - Europe, Russia, North America, China. We may hope that large parts of the global south would remain unscathed, including in Africa, South America and Asia. Our roles would then be reversed: we would be the shattered refugees seeking refuge in their lands. I wonder if they will give us the same treatment as we have given them? But in any case, there will be a chance for peoples who were long victims of the nuclear powers to take a leadership role - and hopefully help us build a wiser, kinder human civilization in the process.
Chilling read Ed but what I’ve been fearing since before the Ukraine invasion too. I had a similar ‘feeling’ of impending doom when David Cameron got in 2010 and that was just Brexit in the pipeline! I hope we are wrong about Russia and nuclear strikes as it doesn’t compare. We would all need to stand up in solidarity no question. I think I’m beginning to see how the ‘fragments of light’ essays might link up and looking forward to the next one!
Here from X since you wanted criticsm. This essay comes from a place of not understanding Russian culture. Russian culture appeals to multiple higher authorities as giving the government reasons for doing things, they particularly are known to do this in speeches during mass military or economic movement. Whereas westerrn culture sees the government as the highest authority, Russians see the government as just a representative of a higher authority which needs to provide reasons for acting on that higher authority's behalf.
Those higher authorities include religion, will of the people, and national military/economic need. The Soviets had a contentious relationship with religion until the 80s, when you noted the Russian Orthodox Church started supporting the Russian military. The reason for that is Soviet Intel started a massive program of infiltrating the church in the 70s. The Soviets were so focused on using religion to control the masses, that a 1981 assassination attempt on the Catholic Pope was approved by the Politboro. Local governments in Russia literally have finally say over the Lay People (non pastoral church clergy)
That's all this religious connotation is, it's a contiunation of the Soviet Intelligence program's usage of religion for population control, this is not something that leadership seriously believes in. All the military religious stuff is quite literally just following Soviet handbooks on using population management via whatever tools necessary.
Thank you for your comments and for taking the time to reply. Your analysis makes sense and seems to be based on authoritative knowledge of the Soviet system, something I do not have. I hope you are right.
My response would be that your analysis is rooted in a modern mentality: that people in power could not genuinely believe in such things. Any grand spiritual ideology must merely be a Machiavellian cover for a system of control. For decades, I have no doubt that was true.
Ultimately neither of us knows what Putin truly thinks. This essay is an attempt to suggest that the rational analysis and assumptions that applied for so long may now be out of date. One only has to look at the history of Germany to see how quickly wild, apocalyptic visions can take hold. To dismiss the possibility of the same thing happening again is to fail to learn the lesson from history.
This is the scariest and most profound essay I have ever read about the significance of Russia's war against Ukraine and the real threat the Russian belief system presents to human civilization. I am numb, nauseated, choking and shaking after reading.
The writer has knowledge of history, culture and religion and weaves all those threads together in flowing prose to warn the world of the nuclear meteor that is fast approaching our horizon and whose impact into our planet will extinct us all.
He is courageous to put himself out there publicly with this essay because of the scorn readers will heap upon him for sounding irrational and overly worried.
In fact, the writer -- who is a story teller, the best of all at communicating -- and his analaysis is clearly, brilliantly rational. Like many great insights, it requires a non-expert from outside "the field" to see and comprehend the greater picture.
I don't talk about my certainty that nuclear is coming among family and friends. To do so invites eye rolling and questions about my mental and emotional stability. My wife won't hear of it any longer.
I made some small efforts at prepping -- storing bottled water and dry foods, getting a short-wave radio -- until I read more and realized it was utterly futile. Maybe it is possible some people sheltered in well-made underground bunkers, caves or mine shafts with three months provisions could "survive" the initial detonations. But they will emerge into a world -- or a great part of the global landscape -- with no electricity, no water, no medicine, food systems destroyed and countless millions of people dying from starvation and disease.
What's more, all the knowledge in how to develop and make the hard and soft infrastructure of civilization, from simple motor engines to computer networks, will have died along with the dead people.
As the writer points out, the really scary part is that, in the mindset of Russian elites and likely a great portion of the Russian people and most importantly those tasked in the nuclear forces chain of command, they are engaged in a Holy War against the West. And, again as the writer makes clear, there is no negotiating with such an adversary because end-time warriors have no interest in abiding the norms of peace making. To them, The End is the telos of their sacred mission.
Those of us in the secular West -- of which I count myself as a irreligious secular thinker -- cannot see, or grasp, a mind and people swamped in religious fervor. We are Satan to them, and they are aliens to us.
Yes, Putin and the Russian elites have been methodical and deliberate, even cautious in the warnings they have given the West. Their nuclear doctrine is well-known, advertised, transparent and available for anyone to familiarize him- or herself with.
Honestly, I have no hope we will avoid catastrophe. Mankind are evil creatures. I have feared the world ending in nuclear Armageddon almost every day since I was a little boy more than 65 years ago and my nose was pressed against school hallway walls as I squat in duck-and-cover drills. The lucky ones will be those who are close to the point of detonation who will be atomized at the speed of light, never even aware of their own death and the deaths of millions, tens of million, hundreds of millions and, eventually, billions of people around the planet that will follow.
But despite my paralyzing fear – my “sickness unto death” – I thank Mr. Edward Scarlett-Watts for publishing this essay nonetheless. This will sound nonsensical coming from the sad atheist I am: God bless him and his family, God bless.
Thank you very much indeed for this comment, your kind words and support. They are truly appreciated for, as you say, people do scorn this kind of analysis, a reaction probably out of fear, the unwillingness of their minds to face the scale of the potential horror.
The only thing I would add is that while you are absolutely right that what follows a nuclear war will be a deep darkness, another myth that we live by is that it will be the end of everything. People thought the same thing about aerial bombardment before the Second World War. Yet humans have an incredible capacity to adapt, survive and endure. In fact, the true horror may not even be how many die but how many survive to face the aftermath.
I believe that preparation is not futile; rather, it is essential. From what I have read, the maximum danger from fallout is the first 14 days, after which we would be able to emerge. As for the loss of knowledge - a book has been written for that very purpose: https://amzn.eu/d/5NTNj71
It's also worth noting that a nuclear war would primarily be between the nations of the global north - Europe, Russia, North America, China. We may hope that large parts of the global south would remain unscathed, including in Africa, South America and Asia. Our roles would then be reversed: we would be the shattered refugees seeking refuge in their lands. I wonder if they will give us the same treatment as we have given them? But in any case, there will be a chance for peoples who were long victims of the nuclear powers to take a leadership role - and hopefully help us build a wiser, kinder human civilization in the process.
Chilling read Ed but what I’ve been fearing since before the Ukraine invasion too. I had a similar ‘feeling’ of impending doom when David Cameron got in 2010 and that was just Brexit in the pipeline! I hope we are wrong about Russia and nuclear strikes as it doesn’t compare. We would all need to stand up in solidarity no question. I think I’m beginning to see how the ‘fragments of light’ essays might link up and looking forward to the next one!
Thanks Clio, it's good to hear I'm not alone in that feeling. I appreciate your support - a shape will slowly form...
Are you going to BBC Roger memorial? If so see you there!x
I'm away unfortunately, so sorry to miss it x
Here from X since you wanted criticsm. This essay comes from a place of not understanding Russian culture. Russian culture appeals to multiple higher authorities as giving the government reasons for doing things, they particularly are known to do this in speeches during mass military or economic movement. Whereas westerrn culture sees the government as the highest authority, Russians see the government as just a representative of a higher authority which needs to provide reasons for acting on that higher authority's behalf.
Those higher authorities include religion, will of the people, and national military/economic need. The Soviets had a contentious relationship with religion until the 80s, when you noted the Russian Orthodox Church started supporting the Russian military. The reason for that is Soviet Intel started a massive program of infiltrating the church in the 70s. The Soviets were so focused on using religion to control the masses, that a 1981 assassination attempt on the Catholic Pope was approved by the Politboro. Local governments in Russia literally have finally say over the Lay People (non pastoral church clergy)
That's all this religious connotation is, it's a contiunation of the Soviet Intelligence program's usage of religion for population control, this is not something that leadership seriously believes in. All the military religious stuff is quite literally just following Soviet handbooks on using population management via whatever tools necessary.
Thank you for your comments and for taking the time to reply. Your analysis makes sense and seems to be based on authoritative knowledge of the Soviet system, something I do not have. I hope you are right.
My response would be that your analysis is rooted in a modern mentality: that people in power could not genuinely believe in such things. Any grand spiritual ideology must merely be a Machiavellian cover for a system of control. For decades, I have no doubt that was true.
And yet multiple sources report on the growth in occult belief within Moscow elites, including those close to Putin, referenced here for example: https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2019/09/27/superstitious-minds-why-the-russian-elite-fears-a-rebellious-shaman-a67460
Ultimately neither of us knows what Putin truly thinks. This essay is an attempt to suggest that the rational analysis and assumptions that applied for so long may now be out of date. One only has to look at the history of Germany to see how quickly wild, apocalyptic visions can take hold. To dismiss the possibility of the same thing happening again is to fail to learn the lesson from history.